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Saturday, August 13, 2011

postheadericon An Exploration Into How Politicians Make Up Numbers; The Mythical 74,000 Jobs Lost By FAA Shutdown

9:42 AM | Posted by ProJ | | Edit Post
A few years ago we wrote about how completely the wrong job-loss numbers, and dollar losses made due to "piracy" their way into the press and in political circles. Basically someone has a random Unsourced claims once, years ago, and it was twisted and exaggerated as fact - with various groups calling on each other to give it the heft of the "as said by [insert distinguished institution here] \." The same thing happens in politics all the time.

Trails we have a similar analysis of the discussion at the recent FAA shutdown (which finally ended). If you read the press reports, you'll probably see claims that 74,000 people lost jobs because of the shutdown. It was pretty much everywhere (here are only a few examples). Unfortunately, this number is totally fake.
To calculate the 70,000 figure in the public when the FAA turned to Associated General Contractors of America, a construction industry group, the economic impact of the FAA funding impasse. The FAA had stopped more than 200 construction projects totaling $ 2,500,000,000th

AGC dusted performed the 3-year study by Fuller. His research, designed to meet the \ Show "multiplier effect 'of the President' s economic stimulus package in early 2009 found that $ created 1 billion in non-residential building construction or supported 28 500 jobs and added $ 3.4 billion to the gross domestic product.

AGC economist used a Fuller 's formula to the FAA' s $ 2500000000 to stop construction and came to the conclusion that it put "24,000 unemployed construction worker." Another 11,000 people in related businesses "are also \ affected "said the AGC, and" as much as 35,000 jobs will be undermined in the broader economy, from the lunch wagon near the construction site for the truck dealer in the city. "
Well, since up to 70,000 people (plus the 4,000 directly to get leave of absence from the FAA to 74,000) has. Except ... Of course, that 46 000 of these jobs weren 't really lost. They were just loaded. The guy indeed the study acknowledges that the other 46 000 jobs were not construction workers unemployed, "could see pharmacy staff and restaurant waitresses," but people like \ to flow a little bit less revenue. '\'

But that didn 't stop the press or politics. In fact, many of them quickly began driving up the already massively inflated 74 000 even higher:
" Seventy-five thousand people are now in the gulf, said "Rep. Steny Hoyer, D-Maryland, at a Wednesday news conference.

"We have 80,000 jobs at least on the line, "said Majority Leader Harry Reid at a briefing on Tuesday.

[...]

On Wednesday, the AFL-CIO Executive Council was in the act. In a press release, said House Republicans "90 000 airport construction jobs at risk." Two sentences later, it went for the brass ring: "The Congress must (is) to preserve almost 100,000 American jobs "It said.
That this is probably more than three times the actual number ... why we come in the way of facts. And people wonder why nobody trusts the AFL-CIO more ...

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