The closure of Google Reader is the first users and developers fear that Google services or APIs that off. An analysis of 39 deals closed indicates how long to get

Earlier this week, Google launched Google Keep - a service designed to allow you to store notes and other information "in the cloud". Those with long memories may think it is a little familiar, that's because it is: Evernote offers a very similar service already (and has been since June 2008). Further, Google used to have a product called Google Notebook, introduced in May 2006, he was more or less the same thing. Why does Google keep? Because he was killed for laptop - without love, apparently unnoticed - in November 2011. (Love and ceased in 2009 when the development is completed.)

One might think that this would be the implementation of hop geeks keep early adopters who use it - even those who do not remember the laptop disappeared. Instead, he was greeted with sidelong glances.

This is because the announcement earlier this month that Google Reader, an RSS feed, will be closed between July 1, has made people who trusted him more prudent to trust your data in Google services.

The not worry this time is not about privacy, is whether they will wake up in a few years and read a blogpost with doom-laden words like "unfortunately has never gained traction among users ... "Followed by the date on which the lights go out. And your data or die, or should be collected and then transported around like an old sofa, which will be pushed down the stairs in a new service.

Closing time

When is this likely to happen? From the data that I understood the 39 API and Google services - ranging from ephemeral "Google Lively" (a presentation on 3D animated July 9, 2008 and killed only 175 days later, on December 31 ) surprisingly long duration iGoogle (personalized Google homepage, which can add RSS feeds and data, launched in May 2005 and given the chop in November after 3106 days) - the average life products do not the cut is 1.459 days. It is only two days less than four years. For lovers of statistics, the standard deviation is 689 days, barring an article (iGoogle) all members of the group are within two standard deviations of the mean.

in the control group, which excludes material (such as Google Mini, a device independent research or short Q Nexus from 2012 that was never in stores) initiatives such as RE

Google Translate API

) or refused new users (such as Exchange Active Sync for Gmail). I also excluded services have been launched in other countries (such as parts of Google Voice). In the calculation of dates, specific dates used were available, which are not, I used the first day of the month for the beginning and / or end. This only affects the life of 15 days on average, and must balance the whole group.

So if you want to know when Google Keep opened March 21, 2013, probably stop - again, assuming that Google decides it just does not - then the average to think that the answer is:

March 18, 2017

. This is enough time for you to get a lot of information that you can trust her, and also long enough for Google to discover that, well, people are not using it to the extent expected . The same thing happened with Knol (length: 1377 days, from 23 July 2008 to 30 April 2012) or Wave (1095 days, from May 2009 - 30 April 2012) or indeed player (2824 Day 7 October 2005 to July 1, 2013).

If you want to play a little with the numbers, so if we assume that the closures are random and normally distributed around the mean, and Google will shut down Google continues, then there is a 68% chance that the closing will take place between April 2015 and February 2019. To date, would later be much longer than Evernote - which is still growing - lasted. Is it true that Google has promised to keep?

The kernel is still alive - but what is the basis

The obvious objection is that these figures ignore all services and APIs that Google has started and continued. No research, obviously. There are Android. There is Google Docs. Google Earth. Google Maps. Street View. Google Voice. And so on, so forth.

Or how Google Search Timeline, which gave a visual representation of the results of research on a particular topic or phrase in time? This is the kind of tool, once again, that other search engines do not, but it seems to be a USP (unique selling point) to add to many others, allowing you to focus on particular periods. Ideal for researchers. A great way to get high quality, these influential people who seek deep to come back and recommend to friends

But no -. He was one of the shortest life products, launched in April 2009 and died in January 2011, a lifetime of 640 days
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